snow or rain tomorrow?

[jh_on_the_cape]

so... do think it will snow or rain tomorrow? (fri dec 9).
just trying to plan a ride. rain would wash all snow away, not much on the cape now, but enough to make offroad riding interesting.

soo... wadaya think? i checked the internet weather sites and they disagree. i think it will rain at the beach but snow at otis ( a few miles inland).

yes i am bored. havent ridden in daaays...

[bdee]

Well, I'm betting on this forecast:

http://www.abc6.com/weather_forecast.shtml

ABC6 is about the only station able to come close with regard to Winter storms in RI/SE Mass. I plan on getting up around 6:15 tomorrow AM to see what it's doing and then going from there - if it's not super miserable out I'll ride before work. Saturday AM looks like it's going to be OK in Southern RI for riding (Burlingame). I rode Foxboro at 7:00 this morning and most of the snow is packed down to about nothing. Even if that area picks up a few inches it'll be rideable. 'Cross nationals should be interesting, especially the races tomorrow!

But hey, who knows it might be all snow or all rain, or it could be sunny out right? ::)

[imploded]

Looks like the temp will be above freezing as the storm really starts to pack it's punch. I figure about ~1" before daybreak and then changeover to rain, looks like a good amount (.8"; .1 of it as snow) of precip during the day.

Pretty damn cold to be riding, with all that moisture...

(the following is the ETA short range weather model for Hyannis, there is still disagreement between the major weather models FWIW)

Pretty decent (30kt) winds, according to this...

Cheers,

-Andrew

[off piste]

I'm betting on this:

Snow will begin toward sunrise Friday and will quickly become heavy
during the Friday morning rush hour and last into early afternoon...
when snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible. Expect
difficult travel thought the morning and into the afternoon.

Total snowfall of 6 to 10 inches are expected by the time the snow
ends Friday afternoon.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Took tomorrow off. Over to Wachusett early to earn turns before the lifts start, then several hours on the chairs, then off to Jay Peak for the Vermont Telemark Festival.


http://forums.alpinezone.com/images/smiles/icon_beer.gif

[imploded]

It's gonna be a blast man, I love this. Why watch porno when you have the weather? :D


FXUS61 KBOX 082158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 PM EST THU DEC 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOTS OF THINGS TO THINK ABOUT ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FIRST...THE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES WITH ITS DISPARITY OF HOW TO HANDLE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
DURING FRIDAY. EVEN THE CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE TWO CAMPS...ONE
DEVELOPING A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW AND MOVING IT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WITH THE OTHER CAMP GOING WITH A BOMBOGENESIS
SITUATION...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
SOLUTION...AS THE LEAD MODEL /THE GFS/ HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...THOUGH DID A LIMITED BLEND
WITH THE NAM. STILL DO EXPECT WARM AIR TO WRAP IN AROUND THIS LOW
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ANOTHER BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP...
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THAT. FEEL THAT THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC SNOW
FORMATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...FROM THE INTERIOR
MERRIMACK VALLEY THROUGH WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. IN THIS AREA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
2-3" PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH.

HAVE ISSUED EITHER WINTER STORM OR HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS FOR MOST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH WESTERN NORFOLK COUNTY INTO
NORTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND...WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
EAST COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CENTRAL RHODE
ISLAND. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOWS WRAP AROUND THE STORM AS IT MOVES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE MORE OF A MIX...NAMELY
THE AREAS IN THE ADVISORY. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

ANOTHER FACTOR. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS WILL BE UPWARD
TO 60 KTS...SO EXPECT AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS 40 MPH OR GREATER
COULD BEEN MEASURED ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMP FORECAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

[off piste]

http://www.skiingweatherman.com/weather.php


An injection of Atlantic moisture will provide just enough fuel for a spot like Mt.Wachusett north of Worcester, Massachusetts to be the big winner in this storm.


Man, I feel like a little kid on Christmas Eve ;D ;D

Gotta go change my pants.....

[Longshanks]

Perfect weekend coming. Just got back from a ride in mid-cape and the ground was ice and crunchy snow. It sucked. The friday storm will hopefully fix that for a good saturday ride, then the wife is treating at wachusett on sunday. first boarding of the winter. can't wait.

[off piste]

http://home.comcast.net/~wi1w/dec-8-9-third.gif

[heckler]

I'll let you know on Satuurday...

[bdee]

Man, I wish I could get to Wachusett this Sunday, but Xmas shopping is beckoning. I just can't/won't let myself do it the week before Xmas (as I have every other year ::)). Oh well, there will be riding tomorrow AM down at Burlingame (RI) and then 'cross nationals in the afternoon ;D

I got up to ride Lincoln Woods this AM but fell back to sleep watching the weather ! I love riding when it's snowing like this, everything is super quiet.

Post the Wachusett conditions, if they are great I may have to feel too sick to work some day next week ;)

[Longshanks]

Wachusett is looking like a foot of new snow and 30's for sunday (from down here on the cape today where it's raining and crappy as hell out).

Might/maybe/perhaps doing a ride at borderland tomorrow AM depending on the final flake count. I'd say 5+ inches and it'll be off, but under that and it'll be on.

[jh_on_the_cape]

well it snowed a little this morning, then rained a lot here in falmouth. now it is WINDY!!! buoys are recording 68 mph average winds!!!

[imploded]

Man, I wish I could get to Wachusett this Sunday, but Xmas shopping is beckoning. I just can't/won't let myself do it the week before Xmas (as I have every other year ::)). Oh well, there will be riding tomorrow AM down at Burlingame (RI) and then 'cross nationals in the afternoon ;D

I got up to ride Lincoln Woods this AM but fell back to sleep watching the weather ! I love riding when it's snowing like this, everything is super quiet.

Post the Wachusett conditions, if they are great I may have to feel too sick to work some day next week ;)


I can't see 50 yards out the window here in Woonsocket, supposedly up in Uxbridge we have about 13" at home.

Oh, and it is THUNDERING out here. I love New England!!!

Are they running the Nat's today?

Cheers,

-Andrew

[Jisch]

All snow in NE CT. The snow stopped about 1/2 hour ago and now the sun is out, clouds are breaking up. Probably more than a foot on the ground. I'll get a good workout shoveling my drive tonight.

John

[off piste]

OMFG -- it's rare thing to say, but Wachusett was epic today. The snow just got more and more intense as the day went on until it was a whiteout on the trails. I literally couldn't see during my last two runs and had to pick my way down Challenger. Visibility in Fitchburg on the way home was maybe 30 feet. I don't know what the final tally was, but there was easily a foot of snow in my driveway. It' stopped now. Unfortunatly, knowing Wa Wa, it'll all be beaten into submission by the groomers within 2 days, and you'll never know there was any pow there. :'(

[Longshanks]

It's white-out snowing with thunder??? That's funny.

In Yarmouth Port it's ridiculously windy, but little precip, ground is clear, and I'm a headin' into the woods. Woohoo!

[Longshanks]

Holy crap. That didn't last long. 5 minutes into my ride the weather took a pretty incredible turn for the worst down here. Now it's a snowicane.

[imploded]

Sun is breaking through here in Woonsocket, I want to go riding, maybe I should leave early ;D

Cheers,

-Andrew

[bdee]

Yeah, the sun is making for some cool lighting here as well. I can't wait to dig out in an hour or so ::)